METU researchers developed various tsunami scenarios based on the ongoing earthquakes that began on January 26, 2025, in the Aegean Sea. Seismic activity occurring over an approximately 2,500-square-kilometer area northeast of Santorini Island was analyzed by Prof. Dr. Ahmet Cevdet Yalçıner, a retired faculty member of the Coastal and Ocean Engineering Division under the Department of Civil Engineering at METU, Dr. Gözde Güney Doğan, and Project Assistants Setenay Pakize Özaslan and Bilge Karatük, together with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Arda Özacar from the Department of Geological Engineering at METU.
The report explores potential tsunami scenarios that could be triggered in the region between Santorini, Amorgos, Astypalaea, and Anafi Islands, considering different mechanisms. Using the latest available data as of the publication date of the report, these scenarios were analyzed with the NAMI DANCE tsunami numerical model, and the impact of each scenario on the Aegean coastline of Turkey was assessed through a comparative evaluation.
Prepared through an analysis of tectonic and volcanic activity along with recent earthquake occurrences, the report has been continuously updated with newly acquired data following the subsequent earthquakes. The findings in the report, last updated on February 15, 2025, were also included in the news and information article titled “Santorini ongoing earthquake swarm,” published by UNESCO-IOC on February 17.
The latest version of the report “January-February 2025 Aegean Sea Earthquake Storm and Potential Tsunami,” dated February 15, 2025, can be accessed here.
